Updated preferred direction prediction performance
(From Jan. 1, 2012 - Till Aug 28, 2016)
As you probably know, there are unlimited strategies, that could be built upon our Daily, Weekly,
Monthly and Omega predictions.
Every day, we publish our preferred direction (If we have one) on the predictor page.
(The prediction page is accessible to the registered users only, but Registration is currently Free!)
The current requirements to have a preferred direction are the following:
- All Daily predictions must point into the same direction.
- The Omega predictions also need to point in that direction.
- The next business day is Not a holiday, and not a weekend. We do not have preferred direction for the long weekends.
With these conditions (Which is fairly conservative.) we can have pretty high confidence in our market participation.
For the sake of examples the following table presents the days, when we had preferred direction, using these conditions:
(Note that 1, 2, 3 are Bullish predictions and - 1, -2, -3 are Bearish predictions with increasing win probability.)
We had 227 days so far when we had preferred direction and twenty-four of them were winners.
That performance (162 - 167 win out of 223 - 227 ( Five cases is about even) is quite compelling.
The whole predictor performance, using this strategy from the beginning of 2011 can be downloaded from the „Download” section of the site.
Playing this strategy, a profit factor of 3-4 can be reached.
Professional players might even shoot for an even better performance, reaching a profit factor of 5 – 8.
How can be reached?
- By cutting losses quickly.
- By playing with different position size, and taking into account some other factors, when we open the position. Some of these factors: The direction of the trend on the daily and the hourly charts, the support and resistance levels, the direction of the weekly predicted index move and others.
- By closing the position in multiple steps, in most situation we are able to increase the total returns of the strategy, we are playing, using the overnight position.
How much profit is achievable with this simple strategy? It depends on a lot of other things. But one of the main factor is the amount of Risk that You are willing to take every time.